D 1.1_ Scenarios & architectures for 100% RES and roles of sector actors

Executive summary

This deliverable sets up a knowledge base to select and identify relevant high-level scenarios corresponding to high RES penetration into the power systems, up to 100%. The increase of the share of electricity generation from renewables (both with/without mechanical inertia) poses crucial challenge to the operation and security of emerging electricity systems. Those challenges are addressed in RESERVE by two research questions related respectively to secure fast and flexible frequency and voltage control. The strategies and techniques to face those challenges needs to be tested and demonstrated with reference to sound and meaningful scenarios based on the two considered geographical areas of Romania and Ireland. A set of well-formalized scenarios is the basis for defining and implementing, in a simulation environment, detailed use-cases for control techniques testing and demonstration.

The scenario definition needs a formalized approach to assure the clear representation of each scenario in terms of a collection of various elements identifying a unique set of assumptions for the study. We proposed a multidimensional framework for this purpose. 11 dimensions divided into 4 groups compose our framework:

  • System info (D1 Generation, D2 Transmission, D3 Distribution, D4 Utilization)
  • Sub-scope of analysis (D6 System states, D9 Time frames, D10 Power system model
  • Emerging functions (D5 Nature of inertia, D7 Smart Functions D11 ICT for power system)
  • Actors (D8 Actors involved)

We describe each dimension with a set of sub-dimensions:

With reference to the two research questions, the two geographical areas and applying the proposed multidimensional framework, we identify without ambiguity 7 future energy scenarios (5 for frequency studies and 2 for voltage studies).

Frequency scenarios in the Romanian context:

Group

Code

Title

Description

 

 

 

 

 

Sf_A

Sf_A1

Mid-term probable, still fossil

Not 100% RES , with still CO2 generation parts.

Sf_A2

100% RES mostly wind

Simulation of 100% RES in normal operation with mostly wind generation, bulk storage with HVDC connections and a medium level of prosumers

Sf_A3

100% RES mostly PV

Simulation of 100% RES in normal operation with mostly PV generation, distributed electrochemical storage, HVDC connection and a significant level of electrical vehicles including V2G.

 

Sf_B

 

Sf_B1

100% RES, fully synthetic inertia for frequency stability studies

Simulation of 100% RES in normal operation as well as alert and emergency situations. Wind farms connected to transmission level, distributed generation connected to distribution system.

Sf_B2

100% RES, mixed inertia for frequency stability studies

Simulation of 100% RES in normal operation as well as alert and emergency situations. Wind, solar and storage plus hydro/pump hydro, bulk generation connected to transmission level, distributed generation connected to distribution system

 

Voltage scenarios in the Irish context:

Group

Code

Title

Description

 

 

 

 

Sv_A

Sv_A1

100% RES, distributed generation and fully synthetic inertia for voltage stability studies

Simulation of 100% RES in normal operation. Small distributed energy sources (wind, solar and storage) connected to medium and low voltage feeders. Micro-grid scenario is considered when distributed generation is enough to supply all the loads connected to the feeder.

Sv_A2

100% RES, distributed generation and mixed inertia for voltage stability studies

Simulation of 100% RES in normal operation. Small distributed energy sources (wind, solar and storage plus hydro/pump hydro) added to the conventional sources of power. Micro grid gets grid connected when distributed generation is not enough to supply all loads connected to the feeder.

 

The expected evolution of energy and electricity systems worldwide with special reference to the penetration of RES provides a reference for scenarios design. We considered 7 future world energy scenarios based on predictions from European Commission, Word Energy Council, Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization. Total primary energy supply will increase but less evidently, lowering for all scenarios the energy intensity of the world of 30/40% in 2050 with respect to the 2005 baseline with 50%. In these scenarios, electricity will gather much more importance and final electricity consumption will increase in all 7 scenarios, from 2 to 6 six times of the baseline value, making of paramount importance a secure operation of the grid. The share of RES in electricity production in 2050 varies between 20 and 70 % according to various scenarios.

In EU, none of the current EU policies directly target 100% RES within 2050. In fact, although a 2050 goal of reducing greenhouse gases by at least 80% is stated, nuclear power plants for base load and gas-fired plants will still survive due to their relative lower impact and high flexible capacities. In addition, coal power plants especially with Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) technologies will continue to exist. However, wind will become the first source of energy both in terms of installed capacity and energy produced. In reference scenario, RES penetration will reach up to 50/55% in 2050. In some researches and projects, several non-governmental bodies assumed scenarios for 100% decarbonized system (with CCS and nuclear and 100% RES by 2050). In all those scenarios wind, solar and hydro sources account for more than the 85% of the installed capacity followed by geothermal and biomass sources. Romania is expected to reach just 40% of RES penetration in 2050 due to the massive presence of nuclear and low presence of PV, while Ireland will reach 60% penetration due to the enormous quantity of wind energy. New actors and functions will facilitate the accommodation of electricity generation from RES in electricity systems both at transmission and distribution levels.

New “smart” functions are emerging in electricity systems, and the main goal is to facilitate the integration of renewable (particularly of the stochastic sources like wind and solar energy) and therefore to avoid the consequent massive investment in transmission and distribution network infrastructure, which is highly costly and not favored by local population. All new functions introduce new form of storage and new flexibility capabilities into the grid. The most important will be the introduction of new form of short, medium and long term energy storage to permit the system to gather energy and be secure even in long term absence of renewable primary sources. Secondly, the load, historically highly stochastic, will introduce new technologies to control its behavior and will become more flexible. Finally, the RES will be requested to provide services to the grid.